Carbo loading is well under way. I haven't run since Wednesday night and I'll have another day of rest, except maybe for a two-mile run in Hamilton.
I spoke to a co-worker who ran the course last year. As he says, the 30K course is flat and fast for the first 20 or so kilometres, then you enter hills until about the 27K mark. And yes, they are real hills, big ones. I ran some of them once around the new year so at least I have a preview of the inclines (and declines).
Here's my strategy. Go for a 2:20 finish, which is a 4:40K pace or 7:30 miles. That means I'll hit the half marathon mark in about 1:38:30. For the next 6K, when we enter the hils, I will have to stay patient. Run smooth, run the downhills smartly without expending too much extra energy, tackle the hills with an efficient stride, and leave myself enough energy to hit the last major hill, which is a doozy. The final three kilometres or so is a slight downhill on which I should be able to go back to marathon pace. Or even faster if I'm feeling great.
1 Kilometer 00:04:40
5 Kilometer 00:23:20
10 Kilometer 00:46:40
15 Kilometer 01:10:00
20 Kilometer 01:33:20
21 Kilometer 01:38:00
25 Kilometer 01:56:40
30 Kilometer 02:20:00
I think I have a pretty good buffer -- marathon pace for 30K will be difficult, but my fitness should allow me to accomplish it.